Tag: Clinton

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Ohio plays critical role in a most unusual campaign season

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The current brand of presidential politics has created a historic campaign season that has surprised political experts and the Washington establishment, Dr. John Green told an audience today at the 2016 Power Players Luncheon at the Ritz-Carlton in Cleveland.

“In my career, I’ve never seen a presidential nominating campaign like this one,” Green said at the event, presented by Smart Business magazine. Green is director of The Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at The University of Akron.

Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders have ridden a surprising wave of anger against so-called establishment candidates, Green said. “I didn’t see it coming either.”

Ohio’s March 15 primary was critical to both Gov. John Kasich and Hillary Clinton but for different reasons, he pointed out. Ohio’s governor had to carry his own state to continue in the GOP race, and Clinton had to regain the momentum she lost when Sanders beat her in Michigan on March 8.

“Kasich and Clinton came into Ohio with must wins,” Green said. “A week ago, Clinton was surprised in Michigan. The Clinton campaign had already begun looking forward to the campaign in the fall. That’s a mistake.”

“For both parties, if you carry Ohio, that bodes very well for the fall election,” he added.

Now, both the Republicans and Democrats can expect a protracted battle for their party’s respective nomination before the summer conventions.

The Republican establishment faces a critical decision, as it has to determine if it will support Trump, particularly if he comes to the GOP convention in Cleveland just short of the 1,237 delegates required for the nomination.

”The GOP leadership has yet to sort itself out,” Green said. The decision could lead to a contested convention that could damage the Republican Party.

“Donald Trump has the potential to scramble the usual electoral coalitions that we have in the United States,” Green added.

Among Green’s other observations on Trump:  

  • He is effective at using social media: “Donald Trump is a better Tweeter than any other candidate.”
  • He has an ability to overcome seeming adversity and bad publicity: “He just seems to shrug everything off.”
  • His campaign represents a decline in the nation’s civil discourse: “It may well be that America has reached a point of greater tolerance for disrespectful discourse. More and more, people are rewarded for breaking those kinds of rules.”
  • “This is an unusual candidate, who whether rightly or wrongly, and I think wrongly – is being held to a very different set of standards.”
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Pollster John Zogby discusses NASCAR Dads, the evolving Latino voting population and the potential of a Trump-Clinton presidential race

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“I ran for mayor in 1981, and thankfully I didn’t win,” pollster John Zogby told the Campaign Battlegrounds class. Mr. Zogby began as a self-described “left-wing political activists” before migrating to professional polling.

In the mid-1980’s Mr. Zogby began polling local races, something unseen in the field at the time but is now considered common practice. By 1994, Mr. Zogby was conducting polls for Richard Murdoch, generating information for Fox News and the New York Post . Two years later, Mr. Zogby was polling for Reuters and NBC News.

Zogby was the first pollster to coin the term “NASCAR Dads.” He explained, “Weekly Wal-Mart shoppers are one of the key groups, when they are with Obama his approval rating is good. When they are against him, his approval rating is not.”

For this election season, Mr. Zogby suggests the most decisive demographic will be what he terms, “First Globals.” Coined “millennials” by others, Mr. Zogby suggests, “There is a clear demarcation on foreign policy attitude at the age of 50. Those older than 50 believe in ‘American Exceptionalism’ – the idea America plays an exceptional role in foreign policy. Those below 50 are more cautious about foreign policy.”

Mr. Zogby also discussed how the Latino participation has evolved. “In 1992, Latino voters were 4 percent of 92 million voters . Now they are 10.1 percent of 132 million voters,” Mr. Zogby explained. During our discussion, Mr. Zogby also commented on the decline in support for Republican candidates among Latinos.

“George W. Bush won 40 percent of the Latino vote, John McCain won 31 percent, Mitt Romney won 29percent. In 2010. Latino voters turned out at 70 percent and voted 80 percent Democrat,” Mr. Zogby shared.

On the phenomenon of Donald Trump, Mr. Zogby said, “I thought he would be a summer fling. All the rules have been broken and anytime he breaks the rules he does better.”

On Hillary Clinton, Mr. Zogby said he has met her several times and has personally told her, “I don’t really know who you are.” He further suggested, “It’s easy to see how [a Trump-Clinton race] becomes competitive. Not trusting a candidate,” he told the class. “is powerful.”

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Democratic Debate Recap

Last night the 5 democratic presidential candidates debated in Las Vegas, Nevada with CNN and Facebook sponsoring this event.

Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton was center stage with the Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to her left, the former Mayor of Baltimore Martin O’Malley to her right, and Senator Jim Webb and Governor Lincoln Chafee at the ends of the stage.
Clinton made it a point to target the NRA and say that Americans need to stand up to them and go with what the majority of the country wants on gun control. The topic of the email scandal of course came up and Clinton admitted that she did make a mistake and she has and will continue to answer all questions about the topic. She made it a point to target the Republican lead committee who has been seen in the media saying that their goal is to drive her polls down. When confronted by Governor Chafee and given the opportunity to respond, she simply said no. This can be looked at as not taking the Governor as a serious candidate or she’s tired of talking about. The highlight of this topic was when Senator Sanders chimed in and said, “American’s are tired of hearing about your damn emails! It is time we about the real issues facing America”. This line stole the show and got the loudest applause from the audience throughout the whole debate.

Sanders proved to be the most liberal on most issues except gun control where Clinton certainly is further left on that issue. O’Malley proved to the be the furthest left when it comes to climate change and the energy crisis in this country as he laid out a plan to have America be 100% clean electrical grid by 2050. Chafee struggled to stand out when talking about issues as did Webb. Talking of the economy, Sanders views on regulating Wall Street, campaign finance, the struggling middle class, and raising the minimum wage resonated well with the audience and the middle class. Clinton made the statement that when “Democrats are in the White House the economy does better” and how her plan is much tougher on the big banks and we must deal with the area called “Shadow Banking”. O’Malley aligned himself with a lot of what Sanders stated and showed how he implanted them in the state of Maryland while he was governor. His main difference was that he wants to separate the casino, mega banks from the commercial banking and reinstate Glass-Stegall.

Overall, Webb found it very hard to stand out during the debate as he had very little time to talk and when he did talk it almost sounded like he used the same block statements about his military experience and being in the pentagon to answer most questions. Chafee did stand out more than Webb but also did not gain too much traction. O’Malley showed the country that he is a real candidate with real ideas that can move this country in the direction the democratic party wants it to go. However, Clinton and Sanders stole the show. They were the focus of the debate and were certainly the loudest. Although Clinton was simply the best debater on the stage and out-performed her opponents, Sanders was the clear winner of the debate not only by listening to the applause form the audience when he spoke but every single poll that followed the debate showed Sanders as the clear winner with a margin between 60% to 75% of the people voting in those polls for Sanders. Regardless, the debate will not change polls on who will win the nomination as there were no surprises at this debate. The democratic party as a whole will benefit more than these individual candidates as they all banned together against the republicans and lead a strategic attack on the party as a whole together. The attack points on the Republicans were much stronger than any the Republicans have used against the Democrats.

David J. Matheny

Any opinions and views aforementioned are entirely my own and not associated with the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics