To take a true look at the effect of social distancing, we did SIR models that calculated the spreading of COVID-19 both with and without distancing.

The Social Distancing Model applies the concept of social distancing to the SIR model. Social distancing is the practice of keeping physical distance from one another to prevent the spread of highly contagious outbreaks, such as COVID-19. Essentially, variables are added to the SIR model to represent the distancing, or lack of, in populations. Rates are assigned to values based on how much distancing is done. The higher the value, the better or more effective distancing is being practiced. The only difference between the regular SIR Model and the “Non-Distancing” Model is that the “Non-Distancing” formula makes sure to specify that populations are non-distancing because this is what the model is examining. If the model was not about social distancing, then the formula could have been written as a regular SIR MModel, but it helps to have variables that specifically represent non-distancing populations when that idea is so critical to preventing the spread of COVID-19.

First, take a look at the “Non-Distancing” model to look at how the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations change in relation to the spread of COVID-19 when social distancing is not practices and when populations continue life as normal. Then, look at the”Social Distancing” model to see how the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations change in relation to the spread of COVID-19 when people practice effective social distancing.

Here is how a Non-Distancing model is represented:

Here is what Non-Distancing looks like visually:

Here is what each variable means:

Graph of Social Distancing vs Not Social DISTANCING:

When these models were turned into graphs, the “Not Social Distancing” graph had a high curve compared to the curve of the “Social Distancing” graph. The graphs are a visualization of the data, so the curves correlate to the number of people infected with COVID-19 and the spread of the virus. The higher the curve is, the more people have contracted the virus. However, when the curve from the “Social Distancing” graph was examined, it was noticeably flatter in comparison to the “Not Social Distancing” graph. The flatter curve on the “Social Distancing Graph” tells us that the practice of keeping physical distance will actually prevent the spread of the virus. This is where the term “flattening the curve” comes from!

INTERACTIVE MATLAB Social Distancing vs Non-Social Distancing MODEL:

1. Open the following link
2. Login with with MATLAB account.
3. Open folder “COVID-19 Interactive Models”
4. Find the file “SIR_Social_Distancing.m”
5. Right click the file and hit “Run”

Experts use the outcomes from these models to justify actions taken inn regards to public safety, such as the closing of “non-essential” businesses, transitioning to remote schooling, and mandating a “Stay At Home” order. This model and the math behind it proves that social distancing can, in fact, prevent the spreading of the virus. 

Check out the Current COVID-19 Cases tab for current data in the state of Ohio and internationally.