High Risk Model

The High Risk Model is a more complicated SIR Model. Typically, the more variables added, the more complicated and accurate a model will be. In this model, age is taken into account when calculating the populations of those susceptible, infected, and recovered from COVID-19. So, there are two different equations that interact when the “young” age reaches a certain age and crosses into the “old” population. The “old” population and the “young” population are still susceptible, can become infected, and can recover and become susceptible again (depending on virus mutations)- just like a regular SIR Model. The purpose of differentiating age when looking at the spread of COVID-19 is because we know that the older population is more likely to develop more severe symptoms and serious cases of COVID-19, whereas younger people tend to show milder symptoms, recover faster, or show no symptoms at all. For our purposed, we are considering “high risk” the “older” population, and “low risk” the “younger” population. The High Risk Model can also be considered an Age Population Model, so the terms may be used interchangeably through the rest of the page. However, there is no evidence showing that the elderly are mode likely to contract more dangerous strains of the virus. Using information found in High Risk/Age Population Models, experts can recommend advice based on age and take increased measures to keep certain populations safe. Recommendations from the Ohio governor regarding the elderly include limiting nursing home visitors, asking friends or family to deliver groceries, and to stay healthy by walking daily. Recommendations made to the younger population include not socializing in large groups, remaining at a safe distance from those who are immunocompromised, and moving to online schooling.